Existing Marriott Certificates Will Convert to New Categories — How We Think It Will Play Out

Last week we received word from Marriott on a new month-long blackout period for using existing certificates from the program’s Hotel + Air packages. As a reminder, this redemption option carries some solid value in its current form, but the new iteration that will go live on August 18 is an almost universally bad value proposition. There’s been rampant speculation on what would happen to seven-night certificates that weren’t attached to a reservation when the programs are fully integrated, and while we’re still short on details, we now have a little bit more information.

Over the weekend, we received the following information directly from Marriott (emphasis mine):

This officially confirms a couple of things. For starters, as I suspected, we now know that these certificates aren’t going to be converted to points. If you were still holding out hope for a windfall, it’s safe to say that’s not going to happen. In addition, we aren’t going to know exactly how these certificates convert until the new program officially launches on August 18.

However, that isn’t going to stop me from taking my best guess at how current certificates will map to the new categories! Let me be clear: what follows is my own speculation on how existing certificates will be transferred into the new award chart. I have no insider information, so don’t take my thoughts as the gospel truth and please don’t send me an angry email on August 19 because you relied on my guesses and are now left in the lurch. My recommendation remains the same: attach your certificates now to at least ensure that you have a reservation.

With that out of the way, let’s dive in!

Group 1: 95% Probability

This first set of conversions I’ll peg at a 95% probability. There are a few current categories of the program that map perfectly into the new award chart, and while this may change, I’d say it’s highly likely to see the following:

Again, since these current categories and tiers map to new categories pretty cleanly, I’m very confident that these will work out this way.

Group 2: It’s Anyone’s Guess

The second group of categories are a bit murkier. I don’t envy the Marriott executive(s) who will make the final determination of how these certificates will map to the new award chart. They need to make sure existing certificates aren’t decimated, but at the same time don’t want to be too generous and thus create an oversupply of certificates valid at the most desirable properties in the world.

Keeping that balance in mind, I’m providing two predictions for each of the remaining categories/tiers. The first is the more conservative guess — this is the conversion that would, in my opinion, leave little to no room for certificate holders to complain, as it would keep them mostly whole. The second (in parentheses) would be slightly more generous. While not wildly optimistic, it would still be a slight enhancement.

Here are my predictions, both conservative and (optimistic):

So which do I think are more likely, the conservative options or the generous options? I’d probably give the more conservative options a 70% chance and the more generous options a 25% chance. The remaining 5% probability would be for a third conversion of some sort, though I’d consider that highly unlikely. As detailed above, each of my proposed conversions is (in my opinion) very fair and wouldn’t leave a ton of room for complaints, so I certainly hope that Marriott will implement my conservative predictions at the very least.

What Should You Do?

This new bit of information and my predictions for how existing certificates will map to new categories don’t change my recommendation: I’d strongly encourage everyone to attach your certificates before August 18. Call me overly cautious, but I’d rather have a confirmed reservation than risk a possible devaluation, and this would also allow you to avoid the month-long blackout for applying these certificates or changing them. Once that blackout period lifts, you should be able to change your reservation if your certificate can be applied to a higher category property than the one you’ve booked. Again though, I’d hate the uncertainty and would rather have a plan in place.

If you choose to hold off, there’s one strategy that may allow you to overcome the month-long blackout. As soon as you know how these certificates will convert in the new program, go ahead and make a standard award reservation for the property at which you want to redeem the certificate. As long as the stay will take place in late 2018 or early 2019, you should be able to book without enough points in your account. Then, once September 18 rolls around, call Marriott to attach the certificate to the existing reservation.

(Important disclaimer: this strategy is theoretical based on how the integrated system should work, but we won’t know anything for sure until it’s up and running on (or shortly after) August 18.)

Bottom Line

More and more information is trickling out regarding outstanding Marriott travel certificates from the current program’s Hotel + Air package option, but we truly won’t know the full details until the integrated program goes live on August 18. The exact conversion to the new award chart remains to be seen, but after analyzing the combined program, I’m fairly confident with the predictions outlined above. My fingers are crossed for more generous solutions, but in my opinion, any of the aforementioned options would be fair.

Source: thepointsguy.com